Investor Read Ahead: Recapping 11/28 to Provide Outlook for Upcoming Trading Sessions

The financial session on Black Friday, November 28, 2025, was short, yet surprisingly intense. Despite the holiday atmosphere and a major technical snag in futures trading, the day was dominated by strong buying interest. This surge extended the major stock indices’ impressive weekly gains, resulting in the best performance since June. The core story driving this aggressive movement across all asset types was the widespread belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates in December.

To understand the true meaning of the day’s market action, we must go beyond simple index performance. We employ our systematic method of analysis, which interprets market movements to determine the prevailing investor appetite for risk. Our analysis uses clear signals: generally, if stocks increase in value, that suggests a "risk on" mood; if bonds increase in value, that suggests a "risk off" mood. By looking at how these and other assets (like gold and energy) move together, we can confidently recommend the likely direction for risk assets going forward.

For November 28, the data provided a powerful, unified signal: Risk On sentiment is dominating, driving a high probability of increased values for risk assets.

The Driving Force: Rate Cut Certainty

The single largest factor fueling the market’s bullish run on November 28 was the conviction surrounding the Fed’s future policy decisions. Investors are placing extremely high bets on the central bank easing its current rate policy.

The CME FedWatch Tool, which tracks the probability of future rate moves, showed an estimated 83-87% chance of a Fed rate cut in December. This strong conviction—which is almost universally accepted by traders—remains the primary fuel for the "risk-on" trade across equities, commodities, and even digital assets.

This strong belief in near-term monetary easing created an environment where buyers were aggressive, eager to move capital into investments that typically perform well when interest rates are low. The market’s resilience to negative news, such as a major technical failure, is a strong testament to the power of this underlying belief.

Equity Markets: The Bullish Clean-Up and Sector Rotation

The abbreviated trading session marked the fifth consecutive day of gains for the major U.S. indices, allowing them to secure the best weekly performance since June.

Applying our method to the overall stock market movement confirms a strong risk-on signal:

If equities increase in value, that is a risk on indicator.

On November 28, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq Composite all closed higher, confirming the "Risk On" signal from the stock market.

Index	Daily Change	Weekly Change	Monthly Change (Nov.)
S&P 500	+0.5%	+3.7%	+0.1%
Dow Jones	+0.6%	+3.2%	+0.3%
Nasdaq Composite	+0.7%	+4.9%	-1.5%

The broader market headlines were overwhelmingly positive, with the S&P 500 and the Dow managing to log their seventh consecutive month of gains, extending the overall bull run. The S&P 500 closed near 6,849, pushing right back to the edge of its all-time high.

Under the Hood: The Sector Rotation Signal

While the major indices all closed higher on the day, a crucial signal of internal market weakness emerged when looking at the monthly performance.

The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted toward technology, finished November down -1.5%, snapping its seven-month winning streak. This stands in sharp contrast to the S&P 500 and Dow, which both finished the month slightly higher.

This divergence provides a "massive, flashing sign of sector rotation". The recent craze for artificial intelligence (AI) stocks saw significant fatigue and profit-taking in mega-cap technology names. The money leaving the most expensive, highly-leveraged AI names is actively being re-allocated into the broader market and into value or cyclical stocks.

Specific stock movements confirmed this capital shift:

• AI Fatigue: Market leader Nvidia (NVDA) dropped another -1.8% on the day, finishing November with a double-digit loss. Other high-flyers like Oracle (down 2.1% today, -23% for the month) and Palantir (-16% for the month) also saw heavy losses. This is a clear technical signal of profit-taking.

• The Counter-Trade: The strongest performer in the S&P 500 was Intel (INTC), which surged over +10% on rumors of securing a major contract to supply processors for Apple. This shift from pure-play AI models (like NVDA) to foundational manufacturing and legacy chip makers (like INTC) signals a new phase in the chip industry.

• Defensive Growth: Defensive growth companies, especially in healthcare like Eli Lilly and Merck, posted huge monthly gains (over 20%), demonstrating that capital is moving into non-tech growth stories.

• Retail & Technical Boosts: Retail stocks like Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Amazon (AMZN) closed higher, fueled by forecasts of record holiday shopping. SanDisk (SNDK) closed up nearly +4% on its inclusion into the S&P 500, benefiting from technical buying as index funds were forced to purchase the stock.

In summary, the equity market provided a strong Risk On signal overall, driven by the broader indices' gains. However, the internal rotation away from the highest-priced AI stocks highlights that selectivity is key heading into the end of the year.

The Bond Market and the Growth Optimism Signal

The fixed income market, which closed early at 2 p.m. ET, remains entirely focused on the Fed's expected rate cut.

To apply our method, we must observe bond prices. The data, however, focuses on bond yields. Bond prices move opposite to yields.

If bonds increase in value (prices rise), that is a risk off indicator. If bonds decrease in value (prices fall), that is a risk on indicator.

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked slightly higher on November 28, closing around 4.01%, just above the key psychological level of 4.00%.

Because the yield rose, the bond prices fell. Therefore, the bond market signaled Risk On.

The yield movement was described as "bear-steepening," meaning that longer-term yields rose faster than short-term yields. This is a sign that the market is anticipating stronger future economic growth and higher inflation later on, despite the expected near-term easing by the Fed. This view of rising growth and future inflation provides powerful support for the overall "Risk On" reading, as investors prefer stocks during periods of rising growth expectations.

Commodities: Competing Signals and Risk Appetite

Commodity markets showed strong activity, benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar and the high certainty of a rate cut.

Energy and Equities: A Clear Risk On Indicator

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude futures finished the day up about +1.2%, trading near $59.35 per barrel. Oil traders were balancing supply concerns from geopolitical talks against the anticipation of the OPEC+ meeting. Since the price of crude oil rose and the stock market indices also rose:

If energy increases in value and equities increase in value, that is a risk on indicator.

This interaction provides another clear Risk On signal for the session.

Gold and Equities: The Mixed Signal Element

Gold futures jumped significantly, rising about +1.3% on the day to trade around $4,260 per ounce. Gold is on track for a strong weekly gain, fueled by traders betting on a more dovish Fed. Analysts are now setting high price targets for gold in 2026, citing persistent central bank buying and concerns about government spending.

Gold is typically seen as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty, making its increase a sign of caution ("risk off"). However, because gold rose alongside the stock market indices:

If equities increase in value and gold increase in value, that is a mixed signal.

This is the primary "Mixed Signal" element identified by our analysis. Although the overall mood was bullish, the sharp rise in gold shows that investors are simultaneously seeking protection from the fiscal concerns and future inflation that may result from the Fed’s dovish policy.

Digital Assets

Bitcoin (BTC), often viewed as a proxy for high-risk appetite, traded confidently above the $91,000 level. This resilience, even after the technical glitch in futures trading, suggests robust underlying speculative demand driven by the "easy money speculation" fueled by rate cut hopes. This strongly supports the general Risk On atmosphere.

The Global View and Currency Confirmation

Global markets provided early momentum for the U.S. session, and currency movements offered critical confirmation of the underlying narrative.

• Europe: European indices were stable, supported by minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB) confirming a cautious stance on rates and leaving the door open for future cuts, similar to the U.S. dovish expectations.

• Asia: The Japanese Nikkei was a global standout, continuing its rally well above the 50,000 mark. This powerful move is fueled by speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might hike rates in December, which is a rare, but powerful, driver for Japanese stocks.

• Currency: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower, extending its weekly loss. The consensus for a December Fed cut is pulling the dollar down across the board. A weakening dollar generally makes U.S. assets cheaper for foreign buyers and supports commodity prices, which is a clear supportive factor for the overall Risk On sentiment.

The Chaos Factor: Resilience to the CME Glitch

The session began chaotically when the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures trading—which covers equity indices, crude oil, gold, and Treasuries—was halted for several hours due to a data center cooling issue. This technical failure froze price discovery and caused a serious disruption.

However, the market’s response to this event provides one of the strongest indications of the dominant sentiment. Once trading was fully restored, the primary direction (up in equities, up in commodities, and dollar weakening) quickly reasserted itself.

The market’s resilience to this major technical failure demonstrates the overwhelming strength of the underlying belief in the Fed's dovish policy. Although the event highlighted the fragility of modern electronic markets and will likely lead to regulatory scrutiny, it failed to derail the bullish momentum.

Synthesis and Final Recommendation

To conclude our analysis of November 28, we must tally the weight of the signals using our established method.

Asset Class Relationship	Movement Observed (Nov 28)	Indication via Our Analysis
Overall Equities	Indices increased.	Risk On
Bonds	Yields rose (prices fell).	Risk On
Energy and Equities	Both Crude Oil and Equities increased.	Risk On
Equities and Gold	Both Equities and Gold increased.	Mixed Signal

Our analysis found multiple clear "Risk On" indicators (overall equities, bond price decline, and the energy/equity link) and zero clear "Risk Off" indicators. The only cautionary element was the "Mixed Signal" created by the simultaneous rise in gold and stocks, indicating persistent fiscal and inflation fears.

According to our method: If there are more risk on indicators than risk off, we recommend that there is a higher probability of increased values for risk assets.

The November 28 session was therefore a high-conviction "Risk On" day, driven by the almost certain expectation of a December Fed rate cut.

The Weekend Watchlist: Maintaining Nimbleness Despite Optimism

While the analysis points strongly toward continued bullish momentum, the high level of certainty priced into the Fed cut creates a substantial risk for a sharp reversal. The market is now vulnerable to any data that challenges the dovish narrative.

As we head into December, we must stay alert and focused on key indicators that could trigger an immediate, violent reversal in the risk-on trade.

1. The Jobs Report: Next week’s Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate will be the ultimate reality check. A surprisingly strong jobs report or positive ISM Manufacturing data could instantly challenge the high probability of a December rate cut. If the market's conviction is challenged by hard economic data, the correction could be swift.

2. Sector Rotation: The fact that the Nasdaq snapped its monthly winning streak while the S&P 500 extended its run is a powerful, ongoing signal. The rotation out of expensive mega-cap technology (like NVDA) and into cyclicals, industrials, and financials may become the dominant theme for the end of the year, signaling a broad-based "window dressing" as fund managers reposition.

3. Oil and Geopolitics: The outcome of the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend will determine the direction for the entire energy sector on Monday morning. The WTI price is expected to react immediately and significantly.

4. Consumer Health: Initial data on Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales figures will be important. These numbers will provide an early, crucial read on the health of the consumer in an environment where interest rates remain high.

The party is fully underway, but the inherent volatility remains high. Since the market is trading on high conviction, position sizing and risk management are absolutely necessary as we head into the final, potentially wildest, month of the year.

The market on November 28 acted like a rocket launch, fueled entirely by the powerful engine of rate cut hopes. Our analysis confirms the launch was successful (Risk On), but the altitude reached means the potential for a catastrophic drop (if the engine fails due to bad economic news) is equally high.