Investor Read Ahead: Technical Analysis Summary: Commodities and Forex Markets (December 8, 2025)

Today, Monday, December 8, 2025, marks the start of a critical trading week dominated by major central bank decisions, primarily the US Federal Reserve's (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. Price action has been characterized by range-bound consolidation as markets position themselves ahead of this event, with overall sentiment still tilted towards a weaker USD due to the high probability of a Fed rate cut being priced in.

🪙 Commodities Market Analysis: Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold (XAU/USD) is exhibiting a Bullish Consolidation pattern. The overall trend remains strongly bullish, supported by expectations of lower real yields, but the price is pausing near the recent multi-week high, failing to achieve a decisive breakout above the $\mathbf{\$4,240}$ resistance.

Indicator	Signal (Daily/Intermediate)	Comment
Moving Averages (MA)	Buy	Price is holding firmly above the 200-day MA (near $4,190) and is consolidating around the short-term 5-day and 10-day EMAs, which are now acting as dynamic support in the $\mathbf{\$4,210}$ area.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) 14-day	Neutral/Mildly Bullish (Near 60)	The RSI is easing from overbought conditions but remains in bullish territory. Its horizontal movement confirms the lack of strong directional momentum today.
MACD	Bullish, but Converging	The MACD lines remain in a 'Buy' configuration but are converging toward the signal line, suggesting the recent upward impulse is losing steam, which is common before a major news event.

• Key Support Levels:

  • $\mathbf{\$4,190 - \$4,200}$ (Critical Defense Line): This confluence zone includes the psychological $\$4,200$ mark and the strong underlying 200-day Moving Average. A daily close below this level would signal a deeper correction.

  • $\mathbf{\$4,160}$ (Strong Horizontal Support): A key swing low from the previous week's consolidation.

• Key Resistance Levels:

  • $\mathbf{\$4,240 - \$4,260}$ (Immediate Supply Zone): The high of the recent range and a major local supply cluster. A breakout is required to target all-time highs.

  • $\mathbf{\$4,280}$ (Major Breakout Target): Next strong resistance and target for a confirmed continuation of the uptrend.

Gold Entry and Exit Ideas

Trade Type	Entry Zone (XAU/USD)	Stop-Loss	Take-Profit (TP) 1	Take-Profit (TP) 2
Buy (Dip Strategy)	$4,195 - $4,205 (Rebound off 200-DMA/Support)	$4,175 (Below major pivot)	$4,240	$4,265
Sell (Range Fade)	$4,240 - $4,250 (Clear rejection/failure to break resistance)	$4,285 (Above major swing high)	$4,210	$4,190

🌎 Forex Market Analysis: Major Pairs

The Forex majors are focused on range resolution, having retreated slightly from recent highs as the USD attempts to find a temporary floor ahead of the FOMC.

🇪🇺 EUR/USD - Euro/US Dollar

EUR/USD is trading with a Neutral/Constructive bias, consolidating its multi-week rally within a tight pre-Fed range. The pair is testing the upper boundary of its recent consolidation pattern.

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Indicator	Signal (Daily/Intermediate)	Comment
Moving Averages	Strong Buy	Price is trading comfortably above the 50-day SMA, confirming the medium-term uptrend. The 5-day EMA is acting as dynamic support near $\mathbf{1.1620}$.
RSI & MACD	Buy/Neutral	RSI is pulling back from overbought levels, which is healthy, while the MACD histogram is flatlining, indicating range-bound activity.

• Key Support Levels:

  • $\mathbf{1.1610 - 1.1620}$ (Immediate Pivot): Confluence of short-term MAs and a key horizontal pivot.

  • $\mathbf{1.1589}$ (Critical Support): The November low and a key level that must hold for bulls to maintain control on this leg of the rally.

• Key Resistance Levels:

  • $\mathbf{1.1679}$ (Major Resistance): The weekly high and a crucial technical hurdle (100% extension of the November rally). A close above this level targets 1.1747.

  • $\mathbf{1.1700}$ (Psychological Barrier): A failure to break this area would confirm a deeper correction.

EUR/USD Entry and Exit Ideas

Trade Type	Entry Zone (EUR/USD)	Stop-Loss	Take-Profit (TP) 1	Take-Profit (TP) 2
Buy (Range Breakout)	1.1685 (Confirmed break above major resistance)	1.1650	1.1720	1.1770
Sell (Range Fade/Correction)	1.1670 - 1.1680 (Failure to sustain a break higher)	1.1710	1.1630	1.1590

🇯🇵 USD/JPY - US Dollar/Japanese Yen

USD/JPY is in a high-tension Bearish Consolidation pattern, having aggressively dropped on expectations of a dovish Fed and hawkish BoJ speculation. The price is holding weakly above a major long-term technical level.

• Moving Averages: The price is trading firmly below the short-term 5-day and 10-day EMAs (acting as immediate resistance near $\mathbf{155.50}$) but is defending the critical 200-day Moving Average (near $\mathbf{154.80}$).

• RSI & MACD: Momentum is bearish, with the MACD firmly in negative territory, but the selling momentum has decelerated near the $\mathbf{155.00}$ psychological support, suggesting a temporary exhaustion of sellers.

• Key Support Levels:

  • $\mathbf{154.50 - 154.80}$ (Line-in-the-Sand): This zone represents the recent low and the confluence with the 200-DMA. A decisive close below $\mathbf{154.33}$ would confirm a major trend reversal.

  • $\mathbf{153.80}$ (Next Major Target): The target following a breakdown of the 200-DMA.

• Key Resistance Levels:

  • $\mathbf{155.60 - 155.70}$ (Immediate Supply Zone): Confluence with short-term MAs and previous breakdown structure.

  • $\mathbf{156.30}$ (Major Resistance): Upper boundary of the recent descending channel.

USD/JPY Entry and Exit Ideas

Trade Type	Entry Zone (USD/JPY)	Stop-Loss	Take-Profit (TP) 1	Take-Profit (TP) 2
Sell (Breakdown Continuation)	Below 154.40 (Confirmed break of 200-DMA/Support)	155.20	153.80	153.00
Buy (Bounce/Counter-Trend)	154.70 - 154.90 (Strong reversal candle off 200-DMA)	154.30	155.70	156.30

🛢️ Crude Oil (WTI) Analysis

WTI Crude Oil is exhibiting a Neutral/Soft Buy bias, maintaining gains from the prior week. The price action suggests a moderate recovery attempt, supported by general risk-on sentiment and supply concerns, though it remains capped by long-term resistance.

• Key Support: $62.50 (Recent swing low), $61.00 (Major psychological support).

• Key Resistance: $64.00 (Psychological round number and recent supply zone), $65.50 (50-day Moving Average).

🎯 Overall Market Outlook

The technical structure across the major markets suggests a calm before the storm. Gold and the major USD-non-USD pairs are consolidating near key structural boundaries, tightly wound and awaiting a fundamental catalyst—specifically, the FOMC rate decision and forward guidance on Wednesday.

The overall bias for this week remains anti-USD due to high rate-cut expectations. However, if the Fed delivers a hawkish tone or signals a slower easing path (hawkish cut), the USD would likely surge, leading to sharp technical breakdowns in Gold and major Forex pairs.